Sorting by form and finding differentials

Fantasy Football By Numbers-

Defenders. Sorting by form and finding differentials.

Written by Beka Hanousek

As you all know, there are many ways to search and select your all-star fantasy team. The sorting filter provided by fantasy.premierleague.com is a nifty and useful little device that allows you to identify top players by points, price, goals scored, clean sheets, etc. I will be the first to admit that when I don’t have a lot of time to crunch numbers and obsess over the upcoming Gameweek, I will usually do a combination of the following: Look at the fixtures and see if they’re being played at home or away, look at my opponent’s team to see if I’m missing anyone essential, and look at the overall points a player has received. The beauty yet frustration with numbers is (again) the fact that they can be manipulated in every which way to display a rather compelling case/argument for or against a particular player.

Last week for example, I provided information on the top ten defenders based on their overall points. I then looked at their totals for the last 5 and 10 matches. Although slightly altered for the purpose of this week’s post, here is the information:

Top Defenders Sorted by OVERALL POINTS (price, ownership, and past 5 games reflect results for Gameweek 28)

Name Team Fixture Price Ownership Pts last 5 Games PPG Total Bonus Points Times on Dream Team Form

Assou-Ekotto TOT Home £6.2 24.6% 26 4.2 8 3 0.7

Taylor R. NEW Home £5.4 35.8% 18 4.3 13 4 1.3

Kompany MCI Home £6.8 23.2% 25 4.7 9 2 4.0

Evra MUN Away £7.2 7.7% 18 4.0 5 1 4.3

Lescott MCI Home £6.4 7.4% 35 4.2 8 2 4.0

Baines EVE Home £7.8 6.5% 20 3.8 12 2 2.7

Walker TOT Home £6.1 9.6% 18 3.8 5 2 1.0

Terry CHE Away £7.4 9.1% 19 4.5 14 3 2.0

Skrtel LIV Away £6.2 6.5% 14 4.0 7 2 2.7

Jose Enrique LIV Away £5.8 31.8% 18 3.7 8 2 2.7



When you review this chart, there really isn’t anything too out of the ordinary and if anything, it probably confirmed the choices you made for many of the defenders already on your team.

But,…what if you sorted by form? What if you then looked at points per game (PPG), Total Bonus Points, and Times on the Dream Team? What would you find?

Here are the results:

Top Defenders Sorted by FORM

Name Team Fixture Price Ownership Pts last 5 Games PPG Total Bonus Points Times on Dream Team Form

Cuellar

AVL Home £4.9 0.1% 27 3.1 8 0 8

Caulker

SWA Away £4.0 4.0% 25 3.8 8 3 7.3

McAuley

WBA Away £4.2 4.1% 25 3.4 9 3 7.3

Sagna

ARS Away £6.1 3.1% 23 4.3 5 1 6.7

Shotton

STO Away £4.0 1.8% 22 3.3 7 1 6.7

Ridgewell

WBA Away £4.5 0.1% 19* 4.8 2 1 5.7

Collins

AVL Home £5.3 1.3% 31 3.1 12 1 5.3

Cahill

CHE Away £5.3 21.3% 27 2.6 8 1 5.3

Luiz

CHE Away £6.3 2.3% 25 3.9 3 1 5.3

Kolarov

MCI Home £6.1 0.9% 33 6.0 7 3 5

*Ridgewell has only played 4 games.

When I initially did this sort, I have to admit I was somewhat surprised to see a list of players quite different than the norm. Sure, one must assume that players will go through good spells as well as bad but I assumed that several of the top players sorted by overall points would be on this list. As you can see 0/10 made the cut. Even more surprising to me was the fact that with the exception of Cahill, all these individuals had an ownership rate of UNDER 4.1%.

Observations and Take-Aways based solely on the information above:

• If you are looking for differentials…here you go!!!

• Out of all defenders, R. Taylor is the ONLY one to appear on the Dream Team 4 times.

• Of our players sorted by form, Kolarov, McAuley and Caulker have been on the Dream Team an impressive 3 times matching appearances by Assou-Ekotto and Terry.

• With the exception of Luiz, Ridgwell and Sagna, all players sorted by form have a comparable number of bonus points so they are being acknowledged and credited for good game play.

• With the exception of Aston Villa, all the games are away.

• Kolarov has an insanely high points per game rate.

While these numbers may prove to be insightful, other variables to consider are the following:

• There is certainly a correlation to be made between form and upcoming fixtures. Will these players continue to impress or are their exciting and extraordinary streaks coming to a halt?

• McAuley and Ridgewell of West Brom look good on paper but the team has only had 1 clean sheet at away fixtures. (They are however playing Wigan).

• Arsenal will be up against Everton and Sagna looks like a possibility but would you choose him over Vermaelen who scored a goal in his last match and is only £.6 more in price?

• Kolarev plays for Manchester City (enough said) and no surprise, has sat out the last 2 games despite his high performance rate.

• Chelsea are away to Manchester City and with Manchester United recently surpassing them in the league, I might stay away from this one. Chelsea’s fixture in Gameweek 30 is against Tottenham.

• Swansea is playing away to Fulham. With Dempsey and Pogrebnyak on fire especially while at home, I would most likely not play Caulker. (Having said this, and as a fantasy owner of Caulker, I sat him out for the Manchester City match and lost the 9 points he brought in).

In sorting by form, and looking at bonus points and other variables provided, my conclusions are the following:

• Choosing the unusual suspects has the potential for great reward. With low ownership rates, there is certainly the possibility to jump ahead on the leader board should these players continue to produce good results.

• While form is important in identifying the top players at the moment, there is a question about their consistency and frequency to produce solid results. One certainly should take a gamble here or there but players such as R. Taylor and Jose Enrique with high ownership rates and high overall points need to remain on your team.

• Bonus Points are hard to come by as a defender and sorting potential team players via this route may also help identify good additions for your team.

Reviewing stats is certainly essential in succeeding in fantasy football. Yet, as much as we crunch numbers to help identify the top performers, there is always that element of surprise and in fantasy football, we should always expect the unexpected.

Alas, there is no “crystal ball” or one “fool proof” statistical tabulation to consistently and accurately make predictions. For if there were,…we all would have captained Steve Gerrard in Gameweek 28!

Having said that, enjoy pondering over the numbers and best of luck in Gameweek 29!